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Paddy Power No Longer Convinced that Hillary Will Win
- November 2, 2016 By Oliver Young -
Political events have always been interesting for betting fans. Even though most punters prefer betting on sports, the number of those who stake wagers on political events isn’t insignificant. American Presidential Elections have always been in the centre of the public attention, not only in the country.
Earlier this year, UK sports betting operator Betfair announced that people have wagered more than £44 billion on the US Election. Donald Trump has been involved with the gambling industry, but his Atlantic City casino, Trump Taj Mahal is set to close. The GOP candidate would cost the gambling and betting industry a lot more if he succeeds in his bid to become president as the odds on him winning have been fairly long throughout the year, but the gap is narrowing as the Election Day gets closer.
The Odds on Trump Decreased Significantly
Three weeks before the Election, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power paid out more than £800,000 to punters who backed Hillary Clinton, thus implying that the election outcome is predictable. Even then, when the company’s decision was published there were doubts that Trump might cost an upset.
The odds for Trump to be the next US president were as low as 100/1 in the summer of 2015, but gradually they decreased 13/8 in May this year. At the moment the odds are significantly lower and if Trump does become the next US president, his victory will trigger the largest pay-out in bookmaking history on a non-sporting event.
It seems that Paddy Power aren’t as convinced in a Clinton victory as they were in October and some suggest that they regret the decision to pay out 3 weeks ahead of Election Day. If back then Trump’s chances of winning were estimated to be below 20%, now his chances are 28%, which resulted in a decrease of the odds. Bookies now offer 5/2 on Trump to win. Reports show that more than 90% of the bets placed in the past several days on the US Presidential Election 2016 are backing Trump.
Latest Poll Puts Trump in the Lead
Many argue that this has been the filthiest and at the same time the most interesting and thrilling presidential race, at least in the past decades. The recent surge of the likelihood of Trump winning seems rather surprising, but it is an expected result of the latest Hillary email scandal that was published by the FBI. One of the latest polls puts Trump ahead by 1%, which is still in the error margin, but nevertheless an indicator of how much things have changed.
Many compare the 2016 Presidential Election with the recent Brexit referendum in the UK, claiming that a Trump victory wouldn’t be that surprising after all. Trump himself used the Brexit analogy on several occasions, and one of the fiercest Brexit proponents, the then leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage is actively involved in Trump’s campaign.
One of the main reasons why this campaign is so interesting is the fact that both Hillary and Donald are among the least popular candidates in history, which is why many experts said that the election will be an ‘unpopularity contest’.